You select a marble without looking and then put it back. If you do this 12 times, what is the best prediction possible for the number of times you will pick a marble that is not blue?
0 times
1 times
2 times
3 times
You select a marble without looking and then put it back. If you do this 12 times, what is the best prediction possible for the number of times you will pick a marble that is not blue?
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To determine the best prediction for the number of times you will pick a marble that is not blue in 12 trials, we need to first understand the probability of not picking a blue marble.
Assuming the colors of the marbles are distributed evenly, the probability of picking a non-blue marble might typically be greater than half, depending on the total number of marbles of each color. However, without specific information about the number of blue marbles versus other colors, we generally predict that a significant portion of the picks will be non-blue.
If we conservatively estimate a 50% chance for picking a non-blue marble, then:
– In 12 tries, you would expect to pick a non-blue marble about 6 times (50% of 12).
However, since you are looking for the best option among the choices given (0, 1, 2, 3), and considering a small sample size of 12 trials, the best prediction that aligns with typical outcomes might be 2 times.
Answer: 2 times because it reflects a very conservative estimate, suggesting a low probability of variation in a limited number of trials.