Which Of The Following Is An Example Of Hindsight Bias?

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Which of the following is an example of hindsight bias?

A. Tom is certain that electric cars will represent 80 percent of vehicles in twenty years and only reads research studies that support his hypothesis.

B. Liza underestimates how much time it will take her to finish writing her college application essays and as a result fails to meet an important deadline.

C. Experts predicting world events with 80 percent confidence turned out to be correct less than 40 percent of the time.

D. Marcy cannot recognize a definition on a flashcard. After turning the card over and viewing the term, she tells herself she knew what the answer was all along.

E. Dr. Grace overestimates how effectively her new treatment method works because she fails to seek out any evidence refuting her theory.


The answer is D. (Marcy cannot recognize a definition on a flashcard. After turning the card over and viewing the term, she tells herself she knows the answer.). Hindsight bias refers to our belief that we could’ve predicted a solution to a problem after learning about it – in other words, that we already knew the result.

What Is Hindsight Bias?

Hindsight bias is the tendency to see past events as more predictable than they actually were. It’s a cognitive distortion that can lead you to believe you “knew it all along,” even when you didn’t. This bias can impact your ability to make decisions in the present and future because you may underestimate the role of chance and luck in how things turn out.

How Can Hindsight Bias Be Used in Education?

Hindsight bias can be used in education to help students learn from their mistakes. By understanding that hindsight bias exists, students can examine their own thinking and try to correct for it when making judgments about what happened in the past. When educators provide feedback to students, they can also take into account the student’s hindsight bias and try to counter it with specific, objective information.

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